Majorities across Europe expect a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – and favour EU and NATO defending Ukraine.
9 February 2022. A Europe-wide survey by ECFR shows that overwhelming majorities in Germany (52%), France (51%), Italy (51%), Poland (73%), Romania (64%) and Sweden (55%) expect Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022. In Finland, a large majority (44%) share this view.
• NATO is seen as the main defender of Ukrainian sovereignty, but Europeans also believe that the EU should stand behind Ukraine in the event of Russian aggression.
• Providing support to Ukraine is seen by many as an acceptable risk, although most people are less committed when it comes to their home country’s role in defending Ukraine.
• According to foreign policy experts Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, the coming weeks will show “whether Europeans:in can make the transition from a world dominated by soft power to one dominated by resilience” – and that the popular notion that war is “unthinkable” is no longer true.