23 May 2024: What is the mood in the US six months before the elections? From 30 April to 10 May, political scientist and Americanist Dr Tobias Endler travelled the US and shares his impressions here:
10 days between Manhattan and Texas. In other words, two Americas that are 3,000 kilometres apart. For someone who has been travelling the country for decades, it feels more like 10,000 km in 2024.
This brings us to a first observation: the big dividing line is between urban and rural areas. The presidential election in November will be decided along this line. According to the statistics, 8 out of 10 Americans live in ‘urban areas’, but this term covers many things, and because of the first-past-the-post system, the question of victory or defeat will be decided in the large rural states. Texas is a world unto itself, and it’s America to the power of 2. But Texans are not alone in believing that New York, Washington DC and the other East Coast metropolises have little to do with their lives. But they’re proud of the pull their state exerts on people in the West Coast metropolises – even if you can’t officially do anything about the ‘smug Californians’: Don’t mess with Texas. Here you can buy a ranch house with a porch, a big front yard plus driveway for half the price of a one-bedroom in San Francisco.
Second, Americans will vote this fall with two issues in mind: the economy, and values. In that order. I’ve been talking to students on the campuses of Columbia University and NYU – and of course many of them are protesting because they have a problem with their universities being heavily invested in Israel. It’s a values issue (and no matter where you stand: The university’s handling of the matter is somewhere between unfortunate and impossible). But there are also those who don’t understand why they are paying $65,000 a year in tuition fees and will leave the university with $300,000 in debt.
Given that, as long as they are students, they at least want to express their opinions. Freedom of speech is very broad in the US. But opinions are not everything, and unfortunately some protesters’ level of information is not nearly as high as their commitment.
Also, because the protests have such a strong media presence, it is easy to be misled about their significance in the larger picture. There are around 20 million enrolled students in the US, only a small fraction of whom are so involved. With over 160 million registered
voters across the country, we are dealing with an important constituency, but by no means the only one. In the autumn, another issue may come to the fore – the economy: What is my minimum wage? In New York City the answer is $16, in California $15. In Texas, it’s $7.25. What are my property taxes? An important question in the land of homeowners and landlords, where nobody rents their place unless they absolutely have to. Will economic growth remain near 3.5%? It’s no coincidence that at every opportunity Biden emphasises why Build Back Better was such a good idea.
In terms of values, these are particularly prevalent among Gen Z and Alpha. Fewer and fewer young people see why the state should decide whether I have a child or not. Biden has struck a chord here. Opinions are divided, however, on whether a – really – old man is the best advocate on this issue. After all, 6 in 10 Americans think their president is ‘somewhat religious’. Biden is ‘somewhat’ about a lot of things, hence his more combative rhetoric of late. See, for example, his announcement this week of the first televised debate at the end of June. Back to values: they are also important for the other generations, up to and including the boomers – although many of them do well without religion. In general, it seems to me that the importance of questions of faith is overestimated when we look at the USA from Germany. Of course, Americans are – on average! – are a religious people. But young people in particular argue with ideas of fairness, justice, self-determination, human dignity, etc., not with what the Bible says.
Third, we should not be under the illusion that foreign policy will ultimately play a decisive role in the autumn elections. This would be the case if the US were to suffer an attack on its own territory (see 9/11). Otherwise, Americans’ attention will be focused on the problems on their own doorstep, or on why it seems a little riskier every day to use the motorway ramp in need of repair, or why the ceiling at school is dripping again. More on the role of the US in the world soon.
Finally: In Texas, Willie Nelson is the election favourite. He is a country legend and has just turned 91. Reagan T-shirts are still selling well. MAGA caps (Make America Great Again) are being sold in NYC. Times Square is still officially a gun-free zone – there are signs to make sure no one forgets. And Tom Petty is Jesus. Nobody can say all that without photo evidence, so here you go.
Text and photos: Tobias Endler
