27 November 2023. The terrorist attack orchestrated by Hamas against Israel on 7 October 2023 has inaugurated a new circle of violent tensions in the Middle East. This attack with over 1,200 dead and the kidnapping of over 200 children, women and men, created an unprecedented trauma to the Israeli society and almost immediately led both the USA and Europe to express their solidarity. The condemnation of the atrocities by the Western community came as a natural reaction. The joint statement issued by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the USA on 9 October, for instance, echoed common logic and clarified that ‘there is never any justification for terrorism’.
Israel decided to respond to Hamas atrocities by using military force in the Gaza Strip and combining its aerial and naval bombardment with a ground invasion. The purpose is to push for the liberation of hostages, dismantle the arsenal of the terrorist organization and make sure that no similar attack would be allowed to happen in the future.
While it is not the first time that the Israeli defense forces are engaged in combats in the Gaza Strip, it is the first time that they do not succumb to international pressure to halt their operations before fulfilling their military objective. The Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to restore the sentiment of security that was somewhat lost in his country in recent weeks. Also, Netanyahu bears some responsibility for failing to prevent the terrorist attack of 7 October and this political parameter is not to be ignored in his general calculations.
As long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues, it is particularly risky to engage in prognostics. The superiority of the Israel Defense Forces is unquestionable. However, it remains unclear how a military victory could be accompanied by a political plan to bring some stability in the region. More importantly, those Palestinian citizens, who are not to be blamed for the terror activity of Hamas, are currently experiencing another drama. The death toll is continuously rising, while conditions for people are becoming disastrous. According to the World Health Organization, acute shortages of medical supplies and basics like fuel, water, and electricity make the situation worse in the Gaza Strip.
To be fair, it could not be expected by the Israeli government to publicly talk about any plan for governing Gaza amid hostilities. What lies ahead is perhaps a kind of sustained urban warfare, which the Israel Defense Forces have to successfully manage without significant amounts of blood. Although the Israeli government does not publicize any plans about the future of Gaza, the international discussion on this subject is developing fast. Some scholars focus on a potential role the UN Truce Supervision Organization could play, a body that was founded in 1948. Others envisage a stronger presence of the Palestinian Authority in collaboration with regional actors such as Egypt, and others predict a new phase of an Israeli occupation. Scenarios are certainly useful and interesting but suffering Gazans have not been asked about them nor will they necessarily approve them. But so far they have been discussed over the heads of the people of Gaza.
The experience from Afghanistan and Iraq does not generate optimism on the future of Gaza. Sooner or later, the political vacuum will be a serious challenge. Critics also point to the alleged re-emergence of Hamas and other extremist elements.
Above all, the ongoing conflict will hardly be followed by a settlement that will pave the way for the Palestinian Question to be resolved. The two-state solution option seems unlikely. The USA had failed to achieve this goal even under ideal circumstances while it was enjoying the aura of its victory in the Cold War. At that time, the Palestinian Liberation Organization could not but sit on the negotiations table. The mediation effort of President Bill Clinton failed in 2000, though. A lot has changed since then. More importantly, Israeli settlements in the West Bank in tandem with continuous terror activities against Israeli citizens had already undermined the advancement of a two-state solution before 7 October 2023.
History demonstrates that it is complicated to find a political solution for the need of Israel to live in security along with that of the Palestinians to enjoy dignity both in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank. And now, while the Israeli right to defend itself is uncontested, no one should ignore the Palestinian tragedy. No synthesis of contradictory interests is in sight and no political mediation is probable with the exception of a ceasefire that will unlikely be of permanent character. The Quartet, which was set up in 2002 to promote the Middle East peace process, and consists of the UN, the EU, the USA and Russia, has been paralyzed since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022. So, is the UN framework which is diachronically rejected by Israel. The hope of cooperation is fading away and international conditions rather favor confrontation than unity in support of peace.
Dr George N. Tzogopoulos is an expert in media, international relations and Chinese affairs. He is lecturer at the European Institute of Nice – Cife – and Fellow at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. He regularly participates in the M100 Sanssouci Colloquium.
